IIGV News and Press, Invesco Investment Grade Value From 12/13/22

Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...

Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...

Summary With yield levels surging across the asset class spectrum, one could conclude that a semblance of ‘normalcy’ has returned to the fixed income arena. As we are about to embark on a new calendar year, the fixed income landscape has changed dramatically. From an i...

Summary U.S. investment grade and high yield spreads have been very resilient this year. We do not expect dramatic spread widening unless or until we actually see underlying credit conditions deteriorate. When we consider the paths that the Fed can take, we want to continue to...

Summary A significant increase in both interest rates and credit spreads has made for a difficult year for investment grade bond investors. Focusing on high excess spread does not simply mean selecting bonds with the highest yield. Investing in the top 40% of bonds by excess s...

Summary We believe that various fixed income asset classes are more attractive now and can serve as yield enhancers or portfolio diversifiers, or both, in a variety of market environments. Using broad high yield as an example, at current levels the overall yield would need to incr...

Summary Almost half of the option contracts being traded on the S&P 500, to the tune of $300 billion of notional each day, have one-day expiries or less. Across all listed ETFs and indices, an astounding $1 trillion of notional value in put options (bets that an index or ETF w...

Summary Rate hikes and tighter financial conditions drove fixed-income returns lower in 2022. The broad repricing of bonds and the higher starting yields we have now can help insulate investors from further losses. If we look at international bonds, this is probably the first ...

Summary BlackRock’s top investment leaders came together at the Outlook Forum. The upshot: the new regime is not about to change, and we need a new playbook. Stocks slid and yields rose as the Federal Reserve delivered another mega rate rise and signaled it would need to ta...

Summary The pain in bond-land is palpable. The IGSB ETF is now more oversold than either the 2008 or 2020 lows. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12% today, despite Powell’s rhetoric from last night. In this post from Tuesday night, the relative attra...