IUSS News and Press, Invesco Strategic US Small Company ETF From 11/15/22

Summary The stock market does, in fact, show an upward bias in the 12-month periods following mid-term elections. Consider how all the S&P 500’s one-year returns stack up since 1952. Clearly, there’s a strong positive skew. The point here is that it’s ...

Summary With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Over a more extended 24-month period, stocks returned an average of 33.7% after a midterm election. While history certainly supports the bullish outlook, it should no...

Summary The CPI readings announced last week were not as high as many expected, and market participants treated the less bad news as good news. Market pivots tend to be infrequent, and partially reversed quickly. They can have limited long-term predictive value but can be an early...

Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...

Summary The latest result is the fifth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. In the October update, the AIER Leading Indicators Index remained at 25. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell in October following two consecutive monthly gains. ...

Summary The November Preliminary Report came in at 54.7, down 5.2 from the October Final. To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 36 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 35.2 percent below the g...

Summary The October Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4%, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3%. The monthly increases - and the resulting trend rates - were less than financial markets expected. The annualized pace of growth for...

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary Consumer spending is a short leading indicator for employment. Together, spending and employment are two important coincident indicators of imminent recession. Several of the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending and employment have deteriorated sharply since ...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...