IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 12/06/20

November non-farm payrolls gained 245,000, only about half the mean forecast - and down from October's 610,000. It was the weakest job growth since April's employment debacle. U.S. equities rallied on the disappointing news. Bad news has never been more positively received by the stoc...

Who would have thought that we would be talking about the potential for an overheating economy at this juncture? Investors have been caught on the wrong foot, holding record levels of cash and bonds while being underweight inequities. We expect record operating margins, profits, and c...

The government is throwing money at the pandemic. The Fed is helping wholeheartedly. And inflation and yields are confounding the experts. For further details see: Yields And Inflation - Soaring? Not So Fast

To address the breadth of possibilities that lie ahead in this environment, our global outlook for 2021 includes a base case, an upside scenario, and a downside scenario. In our base-case scenario, we expect equities to outperform fixed income as growth moves above trend, the global e...

A potentially higher inflationary environment for 2021 may put central banks and markets at odds. With markets looking past recent COVID-19 data with promising vaccine announcements, value is growing increasingly attractive. Markets could tighten with the onset of growth, and the ...

The prospect of middling economic growth and low rates makes income generation challenging for many investors. A potential rise in inflation may lead to lower real yields, highlighting the greater importance of equities as a way to access portfolio income. High-yield and dividend-...

Record retail participation in the stock market indicates euphoria. Goldman Sachs stated that U.S. equity markets are valued at 92% across aggregated valuation methods. High debt and unemployment, low economic growth, and rising costs have created a stagflation trap similar to the...

Traditionally, large trade deficits are evidence of loose monetary conditions and resulting unsustainable spending patterns. No doubt about it, this crisis period is unique. More than three trillion worth of Fed liquidity injections coupled with a more than three trillion fiscal defic...

US inflation was low before the pandemic started and as the nation heads into what's shaping up to be a rough winter of resurgent Covid-19, the odds appear low for higher pricing pressure in the near term. Pent-up demand, once fully unleashed at some point, could be a game-changer for...

Increased tolerance for risk might explain why gold - almost alone among commodities - has dropped rather precipitously in the past month or so. Among the commodity universe, gold stands out as very expensive, while crude stands out as still very cheap. Expect these prices to norm...