IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 01/17/21

The federal deficit for the first quarter of the new fiscal year was reported at $573 billion, up 61% y-o-y. Washington borrowed 45 cents of every dollar spent during the quarter. It can be called "Financial Dominance" or the layperson's "trapped," but markets operate today with high ...

This article concludes that quantitative easing as a means of stimulating economies and financing government deficits will fail. The underlying assumption is that the transmission of additional money to non-banks in order to inflate financial assets, and to banks to cover government f...

Annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months, and Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes ...

China is in a stronger position at the beginning of 2021 than it was a year ago. The European Union and the United Kingdom start the year afresh following the conclusion of their terms of divorce at the very last hour in December. US corporate earnings are expected to rise by a bi...

With U.S. election uncertainty largely behind us and positive news about vaccines, better economic data and positive investor sentiment have flowed through to financial markets. However, with asset prices close to record highs and economic activity expected to accelerate sharply in 20...

The Democrats gained a slim majority in the Senate, paving the way for greater public spending and reinforcing our macro outlook. A more infectious virus strain could delay the activity restart but we see the cumulative economic loss as a fraction of that seen after the 2008 crisis. ...

At the start of the new year, there is an almost irresistible urge to make predictions. Everybody wants to know what will happen next. Ending the pandemic is key to getting the consumer economy back to the pre-2020 normal. We feel confident that this will happen by the end of 2021. ...

It was a close call, but Santa finally delivered with a strong rally this past week, pushing the markets to all-time highs. Markets quickly dismissed concerns of higher taxes by justifying it with more stimulus and more significant deficits. In other words, "buy everything in sigh...

Every asset seems to be soaring in demand or price, since there is so much cash sloshing around the system, thanks to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury printing so much new cash in support of various Congressional stimulus packages since last March. For the most part, this money wa...

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate returned to its 2018 level this week. The higher rate could mean people may think inflation will return soon – and the odds are it will. Economists argue that inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling. So, if the market sees infl...