IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 03/05/21

The money flowing from the central banks and governments has created the so-called "pent-up demand" and predictions of 5% or more GDP growth next year. But capacity utilization is down even while trillions of new dollars pour into the system. Inflation expectations are continuing to g...

When it comes to inflation, it's certainly true that copper is far more accurate with forecasts than the vast majority of economists. Copper price broke down in an epic fakeout last year before reversing and breaking out, in convincing fashion, to the upside. The recent breakout i...

Prices in government bond markets around the world dropped this week and yields soared as investors focused ever more closely on the potential for inflation to come roaring back in the second half of the year, if not sooner. If the Fed is truly content to sit back and watch intermedia...

Bonds were selling off, stocks were selling off, commodities were rallying. What really happened last week was the market's real growth expectations improved. What investors should have learned last week is that diversification does indeed work and it works when you need it most. ...

Bond yields are rising which is okay if a rising economy is the cause. They also need to rise slowly as to not shock markets. Well, bond yields began to rise too quickly last week and investors began to panic, sending the stock market lower. The CNN Fear and Greed index is at a Ne...

The reflation theme is alive, well, and prospering. Fed Chairman Powell sees a long road to recovery, is not concerned about rising prices, and he plans to keep short-term rates low for a long time. And it's not just stocks that are benefiting. For further details see: R...

While November 10 represented Pfizer's "stunning" vaccine announcement, it was also around that time jobless claims bottomed out therefore rising economic retrenchment risks. In early January, reflation was given another boost, allegedly, by the results of the Georgia Senate elections...

Last March was when Modern Monetary Theory was launched in Washington DC. The CARES Act provided $2 trillion of financial aid. As a result, the U.S. budget deficit mushroomed to $3.5 trillion in Fiscal 2020 - triple the previous record - while the Fed's holdings of U.S. Treasury secur...

If Treasury yields continue to rise that may pose a problem for growth stock valuations. However, the Federal Reserve always has the option to intervene and suppress yields, for which the release valve is the currency. A flow chart for dealing with unclear fiscal policy and moneta...

In August 2020, the Congressional Budget Office projected a wide 6.6 percentage point gulf between actual and potential GDP in 2020. The CBO also in August 2020, projected that the output gap would persist for the entire decade. The latest February 2021 CBO projection now shows th...