IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 04/13/21

All of the recent positive economic news caused the IMF to raise its 2021 U.S. GDP forecast by a giant step to 6.4% (from 5.1% previously estimated). That would represent the strongest annual economic growth rate since 1984. The one warning flag is inflation. Producer Price Index rose...

A jump in US CPI today is well-flagged, but it should be a wake-up call to what we think will be stickier inflation in the coming months, if not years. This would render the Fed's position increasingly stretched and the policy-sensitive 5Y sector has more room to cheapen. EUR rate...

We are recovering from a sharp if brief recession, and with the dual fire hoses of fiscal and monetary stimulus, entering a boom such as we have probably not seen in over 50 years. Unsurprisingly, supplies of commodities and goods that had been cut back during the recession are going ...

Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy. Solid market gains masked rapidly changing market conditions. Perhaps the biggest overriding risk that surfaced in early 2021 is the power of a sentimen...

The stock market continues in its 2021 uptrend, and the options market remains a significant influence on stock prices. Earlier this year, I suggested that shares of energy drink company Monster would be interesting as they were engaged in a caffeine war with Starbucks. Stocks are...

Investors have been hearing prognostications of “runaway inflation" for more than a decade now, since the end of the global financial crisis. With central banks and governments around the world offering up unprecedented stimulus spending to combat pandemic-induced economic disr...

Despite a weaker February, more forward-looking data remains robust and the economic growth outlook is strong. The concern that's developing is, of course, on inflation. We are likely to see a move higher in inflation in the near term. Strategas Chief Economist Don Rissmiller dive...

Is the Fed's take on inflation giving a confusing message to the bond market? The impact of the Fed's average inflation targeting framework on markets and investors. Opportunities and threats for fixed income. For further details see: The Fed's Average Inflation Targetin...

The jarring retreat in global bond markets this year has provoked comparisons to the mid-2013 Taper Tantrum, when the Fed hinted at the prospect of scaling back its QE program. While today's upheaval shares many similarities with that earlier event, there are also some notable differe...

Investors have been hearing prognostications of “runaway inflation" for more than a decade now, since the end of the global financial crisis. With central banks and governments around the world offering up unprecedented stimulus spending to combat pandemic-induced economic disr...