IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 04/26/21

I joined Daniel Lacalle to discuss why markets are mistaken in pricing in a massive economic expansion. We unpack many of the mainstream myths on narratives driving markets and why outcomes will be no different than in the past. The discussion covers a lot of ground, including cor...

The historical average real yield has been 2.25%. That means that if the Federal Reserve manages to keep inflation at its 2% target, a historically typical yield on 10-year Treasury notes would be 4.25%. Assuming that we are in for a prolonged period of modest (but positive) real yiel...

When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While the market signals we follow generally point to a constructive and "risk-on" economic and market environment for the rest of 2021,...

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by +916,000 in March, well above consensus forecasts. ISM Manufacturing rose to its highest level since 1983. Consumer confidence surged to its best showing since last March. For further details see: Going Out Like A Lion

I believe that those investing in the broad stock market indexes are taking a lot of risk right now, and that it would serve them well to hold some bonds. At present, the 10-year Treasury note is priced to return 1.57%/year. The concept of avoiding a bigger loss is a tough one for...

Cullen Roche joins Credo Wealth for a discussion about the macro environment in 2021. The discussion includes the future of inflation, interest rates, Bitcoin and much more. He also shares his views on MMT, the passive investing myth and future of capitalism. For further det...

The CPI release last week was hot, but apparently it could be explained as "transitory," which caused the Treasury market to rally and yields to fall. CPI rose last month at an annualized 7.2% rate, and it is likely headed higher. Needless to say, if I expect inflation to rise further...

The March budget deficit came in at $660 billion, a record high for the month and 455% above the $119 billion deficit last March. Outlays were $927 billion vs. income of only $268 billion. Passing two $2 trillion stimulus packages within two months makes no sense when the U.S. economy...

Taiwan accounts for approximately 65% of the world's semiconductor production, but the worst drought in 50 years is proving to be very challenging to semiconductor production, which requires a lot of water. Another industry crisis is expected to be the lithium battery shortage. Ma...

Prices for staples like gasoline, lumber, labor, and copper are soaring. Yet, the Federal Reserve continues to stand by its forecast that inflation is at or below 2% and likely to remain so. So are the recent signs of inflation just a blip or something investors should start to co...