IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 05/23/21

Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...

Where are the opportunities/risks for investors in inflationary market? The big question on inflation: permanent or transitory? Investment strategy in an inflationary environment. For further details see: Is Inflation Here To Stay? What It Could Mean For Markets And Your...

Given that Q1 2021 was the most solidly reflationary since the recession and GFC2, we find the same across most of its headline data. From UST buying overall to bank liabilities expanding the most in several years, that had been the overall theme for the three months of TIC up to and ...

Last week’s inflation numbers apparently caught the Federal Reserve by surprise. Fortunately, the U.S. economy is booming. According to the Atlanta Fed, it is now growing at a 10.5% annual pace, despite last Friday’s flat retail sales report. Over 90% of the stocks i...

We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk. U.S. April inflation was much higher than expected. We have expected noisy inflation data over coming months amid unusual supply/...

CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. Producer prices, or PPI, came up even more over the moon than those for consumers. Transitory inflation is no inflation at all; unusually low nominal and real yields all around. You really have to wo...

It's not easy to grasp the rhythm coming from the US right now. Like any good hip hop mix, the rap is upbeat but the rhyme has a complexity toit. Inflationary tendencies are setting a hot beat, but there is a murky undercurrent coming from deep negative US real rates. The official...

Supply-side bottlenecks have increased prices for businesses. The longer these disruptions last, the higher the likelihood businesses pass on the rising costs to consumers. The impact of supply chain disruptions will also be felt in the medium to long term. For further detai...

It would appear that we have hit the bottom of the range on the 10-year Treasury yields and are getting ready to move back to the top of the recent range for yields, which is now 1.77%. I think Treasury yields will rise this week with resulting implications for the stock market, which...

Treasury Secretary Yellen is sticking to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will be “transitory.”. Wednesday’s ADP report created giddy expectations of one million or more total jobs created in April, counting all sectors, but the Labor Department reported...