IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 06/30/21

Amid the economic recovery and increased demand for commodities, raw materials, and services, inflation is rising worldwide to the point that some analysts believe it could trigger another global economic crisis. However, inflation is not about high demand for products and less suppli...

The “mega-drought” out West is expected to cause electricity prices to rise due to hydroelectric power plant output falling, being rationed, or possibly shut down. Higher food and electric prices may be “transitory,” as the Fed has asserted, but this ȁ...

The potential for higher U.S. taxes, coupled with regulatory risks and shifting growth momentum, tempers our near-term enthusiasm for U.S. equities. Euro area business activity surged in June as the region catches up on the restart that has been led by the U.S. and UK. Investors w...

uschools/E+ via Getty Images As current U.S. government transfer payments slow down, real personal income and spending decline as inflation rises in May, according to the May Personal Income and Outlays report. Consumer spending, expressed as personal consumption expenditure, is unchanged M/M...

The American economy is roaring ahead. There are 3 rivers of money pouring into it. It is worth noting now just where all of this new stimulus money will be spent. My advice is just to hop on and enjoy the ride. Sure, it will end someday, but not today and not for the foreseeable futu...

Last Tuesday, while the Federal Open Market Committee was meeting in Washington, DC, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.8% in May, which is significantly higher than the economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase. Food prices rose 2....

The longer a period of elevated inflation - or at least fear of elevated inflation - persists, the higher the risk that a perceived transitory phenomenon could become permanent. We still believe this period will be transitory, but the transition period looks longer and wobblier than p...

Fed officials embraced higher 2021 inflation as contributing to their medium-term policy objective, opening the door to a 2023 lift-off. We see this shift as consistent with the Fed’s new framework, implying a much more muted response to inflation and supporting risk assets. ...

I think the Fed is generally terrible at communicating things to the outside world. Stocks are a very good inflation hedge in the long run. If you want to gamble, at least be smart about it by using products that aren’t guaranteed to kill your portfolio in the long run. ...

At the FOMC meeting, the median outlook for core inflation this year drifted up to three percent from 2.1 percent (though the long-term inflation outlook didn’t change). Of more direct market consequence, the median “dot plot” around the Fed funds rate in 2023 had...