IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 07/12/21

Having brushed off hyper-inflation rants in prior years, I started giving inflation a lot of coverage in the last year because I believed inflation was likely to become the driver in our economic malaise in the months ahead. High inflation is a taskmaster that will not be ignored, not...

Over time, the long-term relationship between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and inflation, represented by the core Consumer Price Index, tends to be relatively stable. At various junctures, this relationship may not hold; for example, when market shocks drive up demand for sa...

The pandemic disrupted a well-tuned but perhaps overly optimized global economy and time-shifted the production and consumption of various goods. Fed officials have told us repeatedly they are not worried about inflation; they believe it is transitory. We are a bit less dismissive of ...

The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply yesterday, dropping to 1.37% - the lowest since late-February. Forecasting the direction of interest rates is forever a humbling experience and the task is unusually challenging due to all the pandemic-related noise that still afflicts economic ...

What makes the current scenario most interesting is the fall in the US Ten-Year note yield (TNX), which looks headed for a test of the 1.4% area. Certainly, the fall in bond yields points to expectations of a weakening economy, as well as the possibility that the Fed won’t open...

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital, and manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). Among the topics discussed: No one can be certain of the ...

It would appear that the U.S. Treasury market is supported by Japanese and eurozone money, as there is simply no yield available in either German bunds or Japanese Government Bonds, which makes the 120 bp positive Treasury 2-10 spread a mouth-watering opportunity to a European or Japanese...

Was the Fed message a shift in reaction function or economic outlook? Heightened rate sensitivity from incoming jobs and economic data. Strap in for a bumpy market this summer. For further details see: Will Interest Rates Rise As Jobs Recover This Summer?

I have screened 19 funds one to three years old that have over $100M in assets using the Mutual Fund Observer Multi-Screen Tool. All but three of these funds have lower risk than the S&P 500 as measured by the Ulcer Index. These funds either have positive three-month trends o...

Reverse repurchase agreements have exploded to a trillion dollars in money that the Fed is sucking out of the financial system. The Fed is effectively being forced by interest rates within the intra-banking system to take as much cash out of bank reserve accounts as it is adding via i...