IVOL News and Press, Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge From 08/17/21

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is “deeply concerned” about the Fed’s easy money policy and urged the Fed to curtail its aggressive intervention in the bond market. This raises questions about whether or not the Fed might taper sooner than expected. I believe the Fed w...

Consumer sentiment collapsed 13.5% since July, the third biggest fall on record next to October 2008 and April 2020. The current read of 70.8 is below the April 2020 trough. Mainstream financial media is trying to paint this as pandemic fears, but that makes little sense. If it was pa...

We believe ignoring the effects of climate change on portfolios is not an option, and the window for investors to position portfolios may be shrinking. The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that now awaits a House vote. Congress will take up the $3.5 trillion spen...

This week, the market did register new highs, but only by a small fraction. What is important to note is that these incremental gains are burning through buying power, which leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable to a correction, given the proper catalyst. However, for now, with v...

Inflation is a bit stickier than expected. And as it is not leading to higher long-term interest rates, it’s not yet having the traditional effect on earnings multiples and bond prices. Despite equity markets near all-time highs, investor anxiety is up. Strategas Chief Inve...

The BLS reports producer prices that are still rising at substantial rates. The PPI representing the final demand for finished goods was up 9.35% YoY in July, slightly faster than the 9.19% posted in June. The latest a new thirteen-year high just about equal to August 2008. It isn...

The Fed is promising to be too easy for too long, and that means the current inflation surge is unlikely to prove temporary. That, in turn, means that interest rates are very likely to rise above expectations. Fiscal policy is dangerously "stimulative." No need for Congress to do anyt...

The annual rate of inflation has seemingly peaked, but the details show a broadening out of price pressures. This indicates inflation is likely to be more persistent and pervasive than predicted by the Federal Reserve. With consumer inflation expectations also on the rise, the cas...

According to the BLS and its latest CPI estimates for the month of July 2021, consumer prices are still well higher than they had been during July 2020, but the rate of change seems to have changed (second derivative). The latest estimate decelerated, potentially suggesting the arriva...

The New Normal looks a lot like the Old Normal in that it is unknown and ever changing. All we can do is observe the present with clear eyes. For now, the economic outlook is still pretty good. It isn’t the boom everyone was expecting a few months ago, and it probably wonȁ...