JHMC News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Consumer Discretionary From 09/08/22

Summary We believe that cash flow and debt sustainability are likely to become increasingly important as real economic growth slows and credit access tightens. Cash flow provides a link between a company’s income statement and their balance sheet. Focusing on the Russel...

Summary The second quarter earnings season saw a notable divergence in spending habits by consumer income cohort. Inflationary pressures are disproportionately affecting low-income consumers while higher earners remain resilient, judging from 2Q earnings results and forward guidan...

Summary Today's market X-ray shows the returns for each index, asset class, sector, and so on, since the recent low point on June 16th. Of the global indices, US small caps are in the lead, followed by the NASDAQ. High beta stocks are the most preferred factors since June 16. ...

To date, 151 of the 204 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their earnings results for Q2 2022, representing 74% of the index. The blended revenue growth estimate for the 204 companies in this index is 9.0% for Q2 2022. July’s monthly retail sales came in...

Total nominal retail sales and food-services spending were unchanged in July, following an 0.8 percent increase in June. Real core retail sales posted a solid 0.4 percent rise in July, after declining less than 0.1 percent in June. Overall, nominal total and core retail sales rema...

At the onset of 2022, we believe various consumer businesses were emerging from the pandemic with some degree of “over-earning”. Consumer weakness and trade-downs to less expensive goods are increasingly apparent (especially at lower incomes levels), while managements ha...

The Refinitiv/Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index has declined this year in the wake of continued inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, and global uncertainty. The Refinitiv U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q2 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within th...

Under Armour Inc. recently reported Q1 earnings that met expectations amid forecasts of tighter margins and a net income drop. The company reduced profit guidance by ~$75MM for the full year, while holding year-end revenue expectations intact from the prior quarter. UAA continued ...

Persistently elevated rates of price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are impacting economic activity. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers have shown greater resilience. Initial claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison, but a clear u...

Global equity markets went into a protective crouch last quarter, and factor performance followed suit. The collapse in Consumer Discretionary and/or Technology stocks was a dominant driver of global factor performance in Q2. The Quality premium versus Value has returned to its lo...