JHME News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Energy From 09/20/22

Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary Core CPI, excludes food and energy, rose from July's year-over-year reading of 5.9% to a YoY rate of 6.3% in August. FedEx reported dismal earnings on Friday sending the stock down 21%. A large part of the economic data seems to be indicating the economy is slowing. ...

Summary Officials at the world's major central banks, led by the US Fed, grew increasingly united in their resolve to bring inflation under control. The August about-face pulled the Europe ex UK and both US Russell indexes back down to the bottom of the performance ranks for the y...

Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...

Summary Energy stocks are poised to report strong earnings for the second half of 2022, while the S&P 500 is forecasted to post earnings declines. The green revolution will continue, but with barely 3% of U.S. electricity production originating from solar and wind sources, fos...

Summary Global inflation was generally moderating when the pandemic began, and the downward trend continued into the early months of the crisis. Food and energy are the main drivers of this inflation, as our Chart of the Week shows. Inflation continued to climb through July, a...

Summary We think the energy crisis will spur a recession in Europe. The ECB is trying to fight inflation without recognizing the costs. We prefer credit over equities. The ECB raised rates by a record 0.75%. We think the ECB will keep raising rates through year-end until the econo...

Summary England and Europe’s near-total reliance on Russia for their energy needs has prices spiking massively the last several months. We are starting to see the latest government bailouts - those of utilities. We feel that the only real consequential downside moves in the...

Summary The main economic data release for the trading week is the US inflation report. The UK economy is in a precarious position and facing a recession. Chinese President Xi is expected to meet with Russian President Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in U...