JHML News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Large Cap From 02/21/23

Summary New unemployment insurance claims have stabilized at a pace close to 200,000 per week. During the pandemic, consumption spending had outsized growth due to massive fiscal stimulus. The Fed raised rates and the yield curve inverted – an indicator of a potential future ...

Summary Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. Fed Funds futures are now pricing in a 21% chance the Fed will hike rates by 0.50% at the March meeting. The eventual revers...

Summary Many analysts suggest the economy may have a soft landing, or, rather, avoid a recession. While those employment reports remain strong, the rapid decline in growth has been a recession signal in and of itself. As we have stated earlier, the trend of the data is far more importan...

Summary The forward 12-month EPS is a time-weighted average between FY1 (2023) and FY2 (2024). During the height of the pandemic, we saw aggressive downgrades in EPS estimates during March-June 2020 as shown in the 2020, 2021 , and 2022 worm. Both the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 G...

Summary America and the world keep dodging recessions, like they did last year. The IMF just raised its 2023 global growth rate projection to 2.9% (from 2.7% last October), and they raised their U.S. GDP projection from +1.0% to +1.4% now. A 1.4% growth rate is not very exciting, but it...

Summary This can be a challenging market for investors to navigate, especially since many are worried about a possible recession. Since pullbacks occur more periodically than investors would prefer, learning to invest through challenging periods is an important part of any investor ...

Summary The jobs report certainly seemed good, but everyone who’s been doing this a while knows that January is one of the months that often gets revised a lot. Markets have pushed out the recession start date quite a bit over the last two weeks. Eurodollar and SOFR futures - sho...

Summary Fed anticipates job losses and they usually cut as the job market is transitioning from job creation to job loss. Housing is the most interest rate-sensitive part of the economy. If the Fed needs to hike more than what’s being anticipated that higher dividend will hel...

Summary A mild recession is coming in the US. Unemployment and migration trends are shifting. How will these factors play out across different states and regions? In 2022, 28 states registered a record low unemployment rate, as demographic trends and pandemic-related disruptions continu...

Summary Since 1973, there have been 7 recessions and heavy truck sales fell before each one with a lead time of about 13 months. In the ’73 and ’90 recessions, sales didn’t fall quite 25% prior to recession. Right now, both real and nominal interest rates are st...