JHML News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Large Cap From 09/21/21

Using the current PPI, we estimated that the CPI would be up about 0.5%. Using our model, we could with 95% confidence be sure that the reported CPI would turn out to be between 0.3% and 0.79%. The number reported by the BLS of 0.3% was, in fact, right at the bottom of the probabl...

Global asset markets have never been more overvalued, leveraged and interconnected in our lifetimes. This presents a massive instability risk for all of us, whether we appreciate it or not. The corporate sector has never been more indebted (less resilient to negative shocks) as a perc...

The market valuation bubble has leaked but hasn't popped. The market has dipped below its 50-day moving average. After racking up 54 new highs this year, the market is drifting lower. Consumer confidence is falling. Covid deaths are high and rising. The housing market boom is cool...

As three rounds of “stimulus payments” got spent, households returned to spending on credit. While the monthly cost of the mortgage and health insurance may not change, the rest of the necessities do. Most Americans cannot increase consumption, the driver of economic...

Looking at the 2022 “expected” growth rates for S&P 500 EPS and revenue particularly since August ’21, readers are still seeing upward revisions. With 27% of the S&P 500 being tech today, the “earnings weight” is far higher, closer to 22-23%....

Too many market participants are hyper-focused on the inflation argument. Whether we have inflation or not is not determinative as to the direction of the stock market. I outline the purist definition of inflation and apply it to our current situation. But, the market is head...

This is a quarterly FOMC meeting, which will result in a statement and economic projections. It is likely that the Fed will indicate the beginning of the end for QE starts in November. The Fed may also downgrade its GDP growth outlook. For further details see: The Fed Ma...

Regardless of what happens with the economy and bonds over the rest of the year, we are nearing peak exuberance in stocks. Most people fear that a slowing economy will be the trigger for a stock market selloff, but that may be the wrong worry. Bear markets are generally associated wit...

This week was a Triple Witch Week in the markets. Triple Witches are the four days in the calendar year that feature the expiration of four different option indices. While the volume was and still is quite large on Triple Witches, the volatility is usually pretty subdued. The thing to...

This week's Sentiment Survey report by the American Association of Individual Investors showed bullish sentiment fell over 16 percentage points to 22.45% versus the prior week. This is the lowest bullishness reading since the end of July 2020 reading of 20.23%. For further detai...