JHML News and Press, John Hancock Multifactor Large Cap From 02/02/22

Conventional wisdom holds that the U.S. economy is overheating. The jury is still out, but the latest reading on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time growth measure is pretty grim. Economic spirits might change dramatically in the next few months, with corresponding changes i...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...

Today, very few investments generate income sufficient to meet reasonable future expenses after inflation and taxes. The inability to meet current and future expenses from dividend and interest payments is a sign of a highly priced market. This is the season where politicians and corp...

In addition to my array of systems of long and short leading indicators, I also have an alternative, fundamentals-based “consumer nowcast”. This system looks at the array of devices consumers have at their disposal to assist increased spending. When those systems are...

Sector rotation and rolling corrections continue, further complicating the investment backdrop. As the Fed starts to “taper”, no one can claim they were shocked. The interest rate situation is an entirely different story. Fear and Greed are the two emotions that tell...

High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. While all three timeframes remain positive, commodities and the US$ are in flux. Additionally, this week re...

The post-lockdown economic recovery was driven by market mechanisms, but this option will not be available in the years ahead. The current inflation problem has less to do with the goal that the Fed is targeting. It is more likely due to factors, which are outside the Fed's influence....

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...

With the market's substantial rebound from September lows, I have updated the market-implied outlook for the S&P 500. The outlook to mid January remains bullish, but suggests some caution. The outlook improves by mid March, and volatility is expected to be moderate. The S&...

The recent run higher in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index finally reversed in October. Risk-adjusted performance has slipped, but GMI's rebound in October lifted it to a new record high. GMI is useful as a baseline to begin research on asset allocation and portfolio de...