JJS News and Press, iPathA Series B Bloomberg Softs Subindex Total Return ETN From 01/13/23

Summary In this post, we provide our key assumptions and outlook for 2023. We are relatively more optimistic than most, as we believe that we are already in the mid-late innings of this downturn. We believe that stabilizing interest rates will provide a base for valuations and expec...

Summary On a coincident basis, driven by a historically tight labour market and robust industrial production growth, the US economy remains deceptively strong despite negative real incomes and tight financial conditions. However, the leading indicators of the business cycle continue to ...

Summary Over the last year, major changes occurred, so 2023 will be about managing and reacting to the changes that arrived. As we enter 2023, the pessimism of 2022 may shift to optimism, as economies and markets adapt to the major changes thrust upon them in the year just passed. E...

Summary Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves. In commodities, after a major spike in 2022, top-down commentators point to slowing growth and inflation, and the historical pattern of ...

Summary Avoiding growth last year paid enormous dividends, but I didn’t predict that growth stocks would fall in 2022, just that I couldn’t own them and fulfill our fiduciary duty. Near-term stock market performance is negatively correlated with economic growth. Commod...

Summary 2023 has come in like an ongoing bear for stocks and commodities, while government bonds have seen their best start to any new year in more than 20 years. Stocks remain especially vulnerable since, even with last year’s drubbing, they enter 2023 still at the high end of h...

Summary Inflation and central bank policy will likely continue being key focus points for investors. 2023 may not see a repeat of the frantic Federal Reserve activity that characterized 2022, but policy rates almost certainly still have further to rise. While 2023, with its challeng...

Summary While falling commodity prices signal potential easing in inflation, it’s not necessarily a good sign. That’s because assets peak in a predictable order: bonds, stocks, and then commodities. Crude Oil has fallen to the lowest level in over a year, suffering a weekl...

Summary Inflation continues to moderate, not only here, but also in Europe. Despite the negative economic reports and the reaction to the Fed rate hike, the US Dollar barely budged for the week. Value yet again outperformed Growth in the last week, this time by a spread of almost 1%...

Summary As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. The t...