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On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high. Businesses are also getting squeezed. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale costs rising at a massive 11.3% year-over-year. T...

Basic economics says that companies can only set prices at a level where the current supply will meet demand. While the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflation, inflation would eventually cure itself through the normal economic cycle if it did nothing. Blaming giant corporations fo...

Global market risks have shifted dramatically over the past 90+ days. The driving forces behind this sudden shift are inflation and excess capital (M2) because of nearly a decade of near-zero US interest rates. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in t...

June CPI came in at a higher-than-expected 9.1%, stoking fears of more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. While we believe inflation is a huge problem that will likely cause negative real interest rates to persist for a while, we also think it may have peaked. We share how we ...

Gold prices are most influenced by inflation-adjusted or “real” interest rates. Inflation expectations have fallen sharply since April, and so with real interest rates now measured in positive territory, COMEX gold prices have fallen too. The fed funds futures market...

Yesterday’s US consumer inflation data for June surprised analysts with a hotter-than-expected report. Historically, core CPI has proven to be a more reliable estimate of future inflation vs. the headline measure, but there are caveats. The case for expecting peak inflation...

At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...

The July 10 "Blue Chip" consensus is that GDP grew at a 1.1% annual rate in Q2. However, based on the most recent data, S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that GDP fell 1.8% during the quarter. While recent commodity price pressures will ease or, in some cases, reverse as su...

Core inflation now appears broadly entrenched across goods and services, which should solidify Fed officials’ confidence that restrictive policy is appropriate. June headline CPI increased 1.3% month-over-month, firmer than consensus expectations. Despite June’s data...

The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...