LMBS News and Press, First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ET From 07/14/22

The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...

The most recent headline CPI came in at 9.1% so it might seem odd to think that the risk of disinflation and deflation is rising. But while the CPI is a rear-view looking indicator, many forward-looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling...

Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...

Services are where people spend the biggest part of their budget. It’s also where inflation is now getting entrenched, independent of commodity prices, and where it’s very tough to bring inflation under control. The CPI for services spiked by 1.0% in June from May and by...

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for June came in at a blistering 1.35% MoM and 9.11% YoY, beating expectations of 1.1% and 8.8% respectively. The Fed is still projecting that inflation falls back into the 2%-3% range by the end of next year and that it will cool signific...

Today, the CPI surprised to the upside. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI rose 9.1% vs. an expected increase of 8.8%. M2 surged beginning in March 2020, and the CPI started surging about a year later. The economy is likely going to survive this bout of inflation without serious c...

Money supply growth fell again in May, dropping to a three-month low. Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. A sizable drop in the TMS growth levels often precedes an inversion in the yield curve, which itsel...

This year has been one for the record books. Inflation is at a level last seen in 1982, the S&P 500 return this year is its worst start to a year since 1970, and it is the worst start for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index since 1962. Investors had few areas to invest in that ...

The S&P 500 remains above the 3,810 May 20th low print and the June 17th low print of 3,636.87. Crude oil has not made a new high since March ’22, copper has fallen sharply as have many of the grain and other commodity prices. The sentiment is horrible around both stock...

The core rate of U.S. inflation on both the consumer and wholesale level has been steadily declining since March. In light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision to curb the EPA’s power, the SEC’s new climate disclosures are expected to be aggressively challenged ...