NIFE News and Press, Direxion Fallen Knives From 09/11/22

Summary The 2022 bear market cycles continue to track the 2008 cycle close. The cycles suggest this may be one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. At the same time, we get the all-important CPI report. If history has any say, this week may be one of the most pivot...

Summary Household Net Worth dropped $6.1 TN during Q2, the largest decline since Q1 2020. There was the sharp drop in perceived wealth, along with a meaningful tightening of market financial conditions. Driven by a sharp reduction in Treasury borrowings (from 10.22% to a 5.56%...

Summary Why were markets getting it wrong about a possible Fed pivot? Why will the Fed continue to hike despite slowing growth? The Fed is pushing its determination to fight inflation. Why are some investors not listening? Greg Bonnell My next guest s...

Summary Falling stock prices hit household wealth. Household wealth is still up massively on pre-pandemic levels. Strong balance sheets will help the US weather the economic storm. By James Knightley, Chief International Economist The hefty falls in equity ...

Summary At the Jackson Hole Summit, Jerome Powell made it clear the Federal Reserve remains focused on combatting inflation despite recession signals rising in tandem. While the Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation and willing to cause “some pain” to achi...

Summary The hawks won the front-loading argument and the ECB’s council unanimously decided to raise all key rates by 75bp. The growth forecasts, while lowered, do not project a recession next year and thus provide the leeway for more forceful action. Markets now see a 5...

Summary The main economic data release for the trading week is the US inflation report. The UK economy is in a precarious position and facing a recession. Chinese President Xi is expected to meet with Russian President Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in U...

Summary Forecasters have no choice but to base their judgments on models, be they complex or informal, mathematical or intuitive. Small errors in assumptions regarding the economic environment and small changes in participants’ behavior can make differences that are highly ...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 6,000 for the week ending September 3rd, coming in at 222,000. The four-week average fell to 233,000, down 7,500 from the prior week. Initial claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison, but...

Summary Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August 2022 to a seasonally adjusted level of 152,744,000. Starting with the Age 16-17 portion of the teen workforce, the number of working teens reversed a three-month downtrend, jumping from 179,000 to 2,255,000. ...