NIFE News and Press, Direxion Fallen Knives From 09/21/22

Summary In a time of uncertainty, we believe that quality is the key to investing in equities. But to consistently find companies that meet high-quality standards requires research, judgment and investing skill. In this paper, we identify the characteristics that can help guid...

Summary Increasing risks of an economic slowdown or recession are likely to have a negative impact on the largest state revenue sources. The financial position of most states in fiscal 2022 was favorable in the aftermath of significant federal aid due to the pandemic, as well as t...

Summary The recent August print showed that consumer prices continued to rise year over year – albeit more slowly than prior months. We have remained a bit more cautious than the market’s consensus inflation expectations. We’re not convinced that inflation...

Summary Implied volatility levels have surged over the past two days for the S&P 500. This means the equity market could rally due to a mechanical unwind of volatility. However, this is not likely to change the bearish outlook for stocks. The S&P 500 ( SP50...

Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...

Summary The Buffett Indicator is a valuation measure that compares the stock market’s capitalization to the Gross Domestic Product. A favorite of Warren Buffett, the indicator sits shy of 2.44 times market cap to GDP. That number doesn’t mean much on its own, but it&...

Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...

Summary The financial markets were shocked by the US CPI for August. The evidence continues to accumulate that inflation is now in a downward trend. The monthly chart shows that the numbers remain very high relative to everything over the past twenty years prior to the past fe...

Summary Nobody knows how high interest rates have to rise in order to slow and ultimately reverse the recent rise in inflation. Only excess money causes inflation, and there seems to be a lot less of it recently, which is great news. Supply chain bottlenecks are clearing up ra...

Summary Data can easily mislead, but they can also inform. Although the U.S. began consistently to run annual trade deficits in 1976, the negative impact on employment growth that protectionists predict did not materialize. No data or sets of graphs, regardless of how carefull...