NIFE News and Press, Direxion Fallen Knives From 09/24/22

Summary The US economy is weakening, growth expectations are muted and stagflation is back in the picture. This bear market has wiped out all of the 2021 gains. All of the major indices test the June lows and are at a critical pivot point now. "I have not failed....

Summary As evidence piles up that the stock market is caught in a bear market, the focus inevitably turns to analytics that will signal a high-confidence forecast that the selling has reached exhausted itself and a bottom has arrived. In other words, there’s (still) no silv...

Summary Despite their mythologized status as financial albatrosses, bear markets are relatively frequent and indeed normal occurrences investors should expect over the long run. Using the Russell 3000 to calculate performance, the average drawdown and duration is 30.9% and 9 month...

Summary There are some important financial implications to below-trend economic growth. If inflation remains high, interest rates will adjust, triggering a debt crisis as servicing requirements increase and defaults rise. Most of the aggregate growth in the economy was finance...

Summary The 21% fall from all-time highs in the S&P 500 has been orderly as compared to past major declines. Lack of strong relief rallies and volatility spikes could be a sign this is just the start of an extended move down. There are no technical signals the market is an...

Summary Recognizing that high inflation will not quietly go away, the world's major central banks are toughening their policies. Gradualism has given way to super-sized interest rate increases and a clearer resolve to restrain actual and expected inflation, despite adverse economi...

Summary Initial jobless claims came in at 213K this week. That would have been unchanged versus the prior week, but last week’s print was revised down by 5K to 208K. As initial claims have come off of recent highs, continuing claims likewise hit the lowest level in several ...

Summary The Fed’s GDP growth forecast was lowered to just .2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023 and well below the 2.5% US GDP growth capacity estimate. The US 2 and 30-year Treasury yield curve inverted 58 bps, the most since 2000. If December 2022 ends this hiking cycle, follo...

Summary As expected, the FOMC increased the range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3.25%. Powell went on to note that there were notable imbalances between supply and demand in many different commodity and service sectors that were contributing to inflation. ...

Summary Goods in the pipeline have slipped back a bit below normal because many companies had ordered more than they needed when they were unable to get goods and are now overstocked. Thus, ports are no longer backed up. The supply chain is still messed up, but in a different way....