OLEM News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 18/04/2041 USD 50 - 06740P221 From 10/01/22

Summary I am reducing my West Texas Intermediate oil price range by $10 to range between $80 to $100 per barrel for October. As I write, the VIX is nearly 32, an unusually high value. The VIX is often referred to as a fear gauge because the higher it is, the more volatile markets ...

Summary One of the key points I’ve been discussing for the past two years is that the commodity markets are facing a unique set of policy-driven imbalances. When it comes to shortages across the fossil fuel space, the multi-year low in oil inventories has been only temporar...

Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...

Summary The energy markets have been volatile for most of 2022, continuing a two-year trend that dates to the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The rising rig count and share buyback and M&A activity in midstream, especially in the Permian Basin, indicate strength in the...

Summary Powell’s speech last Wednesday raised recession fears. The Atlanta Fed revised its third-quarter GDP estimate down to a +0.3% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of a +0.5% annual pace. U.S. interest rates also shot up in response to the Fed Chair’s ...

Summary Even if the political landscape were to become temporarily supportive, it would be too risky to invest in anything other than small projects with rapid paybacks. Regime Uncertainty is a pervasive lack of confidence among investors in their ability to foresee the extent to ...

Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...

Summary On 16 August 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the IRA. The COVID-19-related global supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, rising inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have pushed the cost of capital to record highs. Meanwhile, in China, surging c...

Summary The Norway Petroleum Directorate reported that production rebounded from June to July to 1,664 kb/d and then rose to 1,773 kb/d in August. Guyana added an additional 30 kb/d of production in August to reach a new high of 390 kb/d. On September 23, 2022, WTI settled bel...

Summary Global refined oil product markets are on track to remain tight until mid-decade, with the global downstream industry facing significant near-, medium- and long-term challenges. S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that there are no quick fixes for the forces at pla...