OLEM News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ETN REDEEM 18/04/2041 USD 50 - 06740P221 From 10/12/22

Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...

Summary OPEC+ surprised the market last week with a substantial production cut, reducing downside tail risk to prices and providing a constructive environment for energy credit. As we look at the supply landscape into the end of the year, the market will be focused on Russian prod...

Summary Our big energy bet will pay off handsomely in the upcoming months. OPEC+ announced that they plan a production cut of up to two million barrels per day. It wanted to “shock” energy markets to get crude oil prices back up to $100 per barrel. ISM announced ...

Summary The reduction of production quotas by OPEC+ members is putting a floor under oil prices. Fears of an impending recession in Europe are fully priced in. China consumption will likely rebound in 2023. Worldwide inventories continue to decline. US SPR releases will be...

Summary We maintain our intermediate-term bearish bias and think it makes sense to pursue short-term shorts, as well. Shorting stocks is a difficult and complicated proposition. Typical action would see oil back above $100 bbl pretty easily, with a run toward $120 certainly wi...

Summary Over the last two weeks Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. The big problem with the Fed’s plan to kill inflation by reducing economic growth and raising the unemployment rate is that t...

Summary The reduction of production quotas by OPEC+ members by 2 million barrels per day will not lead to an increase in oil prices in the long term. Fears of an impending recession in Europe and an economic slowdown in China are among the main reasons for the fall in the price of...

Summary Why the White House offered an angry rebuke to OPEC's production cut. Even with current volatility, the long-term outlook for oil is higher. Why gas prices are rising faster than oil prices. OPEC+ has announced plans to scale back oil production by a ...

Summary Slower global growth, a strong US dollar, global supply chain woes as well as domestic economic factors have created headwinds for EMs. The week-long National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (Congress) begins on October 16. Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent preside...

Summary Commodity markets have come under pressure due to a strengthening US dollar and a raft of central banks hiking interest rates recently. This has clouded the macro outlook. However, the supply picture for a number of commodities remains fragile. The EU appears to have a...