PKB News and Press, Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction From 02/07/23

Summary Data revisions affecting median new home sale prices and median household income confirm October 2022 as the all-time record low for the affordability of new homes in the U.S. Mortgage payment on the median new home sold in the U.S. during December 2022 would consume 41.6% of th...

Summary After a year best forgotten, 2023 has started out with a bang. January was a strong month that gave equity investors a timely relief rally. While this was a welcomed development, I am concerned that equity prices are getting too disconnected from reality. We have a challenging m...

Summary A truly exceptional year, 2022 was dominated by historically high inflation, sharply rising interest rates and a surge in bond yields. With inflation now peaking and labor markets cooling, the environment enables central banks to slow and potentially pause interest-rate hikes. ...

Summary A deep dive into the gritty data and formulas of the vacancy rates by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau estimated that in Q4 2022, the rental vacancy rate dipped to 5.8% and that the homeowner housing vacancy rate dipped to 0.8%, matching the record low earlier in 2022. T...

Summary The housing/construction sector is dragging strongly on economic growth. Right now, only the single-family market is dragging on growth. The downturn in multi-family and residential remodeling construction is still on the way. Leading indicators of housing/construction have ...

Summary The composite and national indices all fell month-over-month (m/m) for the fifth month in a row, but the year-over-year (y/y) change in prices is still running at +6% or more. Looking at different parts of the country, cities in the West fell the most m/m with declines of more t...

Summary The key feature of bubble symmetry is the entire bubble retraces in roughly the same time frame as it took to soar to absurd heights. At the peak and for some time after, bubbles are viewed as the natural order of markets and so they should continue expanding forever. But th...

Summary Has the heyday for office real estate passed? How a recession may impact commercial real estate. Why Asia is an outlier when it comes to returning to the office. Pandemic restrictions have mostly been lifted, but the rush to return to the office may not h...

Summary The surge in mortgage rates has resulted in a steep drop in home buyer demand while supply of homes for sales is on a gradual rise. As a result, home prices are now falling in every major city. With house price-to-incomes ratios remaining stretched by historical standards, f...

Summary Despite delivering the strongest earnings growth of any property sector in 2022, Self-Storage REITs have stumbled of late amid a post-pandemic demand normalization and pressure from elevated supply growth. Storage demand is driven largely by housing activity – specificall...