PSCD News and Press, PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Pf From 10/25/22

Summary We forecast Halloween candy prices to be up 14% over last year. Purchases of candy (i.e. volumes) have been trending lower since last October, partly in response to rapidly rising prices. Total spending on Halloween candy, at $3.2 billion, is expected to be only 1% abo...

Summary We believe that investors will differentiate and favor stocks based on quality factors as companies with higher-quality and growth characteristics are more likely to weather the storm. We seek to identify industries whose profits are growing at least as fast, or ideally fa...

Summary PPI and CPI numbers came out last week, and both were higher than expected. Fed officials are concerned about the persistence of high inflation, and a 0.75% key interest rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is virtually certain. Worldwide demand for crude oil naturally r...

Summary E-commerce valuations ebbed as cooped-up consumers craved real-world experiences - but a closer look at the data suggests online shopping is unlikely to retreat. Since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce’s share of total retail sales has fallen to 14.5% ...

Summary Balancing inventory supply and demand is simple in theory, but difficult to execute. Retailers misestimated categories of demand and logistics issues, leading to more late arrivals. The winners will be consumers who take advantage of heavy promotional activity. ...

Summary We expect macro headwinds will continue to pressure U.S. corporate earnings in the coming months. We expect earnings expectations to decline as multinational firms realize foreign exchange headwinds that accelerated over the past year. Investors can avoid undue interna...

Summary A number of advisors have reported higher than normal inventories as an additional sign of pending recession. The data does not support this perception. Business Inventory/Sales…and Retail Sales vs. Trucking… reveal a considerable deficit exists in business I...

Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...

Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...

Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...