PSQ News and Press, ProShares Short QQQ From 01/11/23

Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...

Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...

Summary Yield curve inversion has occurred ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s. Today, nearly every yield term spread has inverted. Several features of the current yield curve are sending a very strong recession signal. Several characteristics of the U.S. Treas...

Summary The overall stock market is grossly oversold, and my small- to mid-cap stocks are trading at 6.8 times median current earnings and just 2.8 times median forecasted 2023 earnings. Clearly, the price-to-earnings compression has become ridiculous and relentless. We are now at the t...

Summary When investing one must differentiate between those indicators based on sentiment and those based on hard counts of economic fundamentals. It is economic fundamentals which eventually emerge into the consensus thinking and produce returns that are better than average. When s...

Summary Avoiding growth last year paid enormous dividends, but I didn’t predict that growth stocks would fall in 2022, just that I couldn’t own them and fulfill our fiduciary duty. Near-term stock market performance is negatively correlated with economic growth. Commod...

Summary Several estimates of fourth quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The odds that a recession has started, however, remain low, according to the current nowcast. Even if Q4 turns out to be stronger than some nowcasts suggest, headwinds are still blo...

Summary In today's update, we are reviewing the fourth-quarter performance of our Alan Lowenthal trading strategy and are analyzing his most interesting, and as always, well-timed trades. Lowenthal sold both his and his wife's Blackstone shares only days prior to the company announcing ...

Summary There seems to be a widespread view that employment is a lagging indicator of changes in the business cycle. The growth rate of payroll employment slowed sharply in the 6 months before the onset of recession. When there is no unexpected shock like Covid, it seems as though e...

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