PXJ News and Press, Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services From 02/28/23

Summary There is some evidence of lower consumption trends for crude oil as LNG becomes a more popular fuel. Next week’s EIA data set will examine the trends concerning this observation. The rig count belies the rising Fudge Factor in EIA data which suggests US Crude producti...

Summary The average annual increase in World C+C output over the 2005Q1 to 2024Q4 period (20 years) is about 473 kb/d. The top 10 non-OPEC oil producers as of 2022Q3 are the US, Russia, Canada, China, Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Qatar, and Oman. The EIA and OPEC have similar...

Summary The oil macro in 2023 will likely be heavily influenced by headlines related to Russian supply and Chinese demand as the country reopens. US production growth is expected to be modest, as companies practice capital discipline and grapple with service cost inflation. Traditio...

Summary With the CPI losing the relief from cooling energy prices, this month showed a solid uptick in prices, coming in at 0.54% (~6.6% annualized). One concerning thing about the most recent print is that many categories sit above the current 12-month trend. The Fed has been reloa...

Summary October non-OPEC oil production increased by 562 kb/d to 50,565 kb/d. For frac spreads, the general trend since late February 2022 can best be described as essentially flat around the 290 level but with a hint of a slow increase toward 300 frac spreads. World oil production ...

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Summary A recession in the United States and in Europe will be less severe than had been expected. Continued economic and military support from the West is the most critical element I think for Ukraine going forward. There's been some improvement in the tone of the relationship betw...

Summary After a year best forgotten, 2023 has started out with a bang. January was a strong month that gave equity investors a timely relief rally. While this was a welcomed development, I am concerned that equity prices are getting too disconnected from reality. We have a challenging m...

Summary U.S. November production decreased by 35 kb/d to 12,375 kb/d. Since the beginning of April 2021 through to the week ending July 29, 2022, the US added horizontal oil rigs at a rate of close to 3.82 rigs/wk, orange OLS line, and peaked at 551 rigs in the week ending July 29. ...

Summary As we head into the end of January, technical conditions in major stock indexes are showing a lot of strength. We think a bear market that could easily trim 50% from indexes is in the cards, but timing is everything. We find price action-driven measures more reliable than su...