QLD News and Press, ProShares Ultra QQQ From 07/15/22

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high. Businesses are also getting squeezed. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale costs rising at a massive 11.3% year-over-year. T...

The US yield spread has inverted, and the 2-year yield is now higher than the 10-year yield. This phenomenon has been a well-known predictor of recessions. A yield spread inversion between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield has been a better predictor of recessions than the more popu...

The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...

One perspective on Real GDP growth is simply aggregate hours worked X the output per hour worked. Aggregate hours worked in the economy is peaking, per capita has already peaked. The other variable, output per hour, is going to continue to fall on account of higher input costs. ...

The Federal Reserve has hardly covered itself in glory by having failed to anticipate recent major turning points in the US economy. The Fed again appears poised to miss yet another major economic turning point. By failing to heed the clear warning signs that we are headed for a r...

The core rate of U.S. inflation on both the consumer and wholesale level has been steadily declining since March. In light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision to curb the EPA’s power, the SEC’s new climate disclosures are expected to be aggressively challenged ...

Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. NBER is widely admired as the gold standard for identifying the start and end dates of US economic contractions. We can look (slightly) ahead to the immediate futu...

Commitment of Traders futures data is signaling a major “risk-on” moment for stocks. The current S&P short position by futures asset managers is an extremely high 44.4%. A ratio this high has occurred only nine times since 2006, and each was followed by average m...

Bear markets result from market transactions based on investment outlooks which are sometimes wrong. Most often bear markets lead to recessions, but not always. Nothing very good or bad came to investors’ attention from the news last week. The news about employment, inflation, ...

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...