QVMS News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 QVM Multi-factor ETF From 11/04/22

Summary This latest bear market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain uncha...

Summary Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to combating inflation (lagging indicator) at the expense of economic growth, employment and asset prices (leading indicator). In an abrupt reversal, every market sector tumbled into the close, with 474 of S&...

Summary The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index decreased to 54.4 percent in October, falling 2.3 points from 56.7 percent in the prior month. The index remains above the neutral 50 threshold and suggests the 29th consecutive month of expansion for th...

Summary Fed's Powell remains hawkish on rates, despite dovish overtures in statement. The Fed reiterates its intension that rates will remain high until inflation is cracked. Why rates are going to be higher for longer, even after inflation comes down. Th...

Summary Claims have fallen in eight of the last 12 weeks, but the changes over the last five weeks have been small. Continued elevated rates of price increases, an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, and fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain risks to the economic outloo...

Summary The Federal Reserve has raised the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Chairman Powell says they have the "resolve" to stay the course until the job is done. Terminal rate targets have now moved higher while expectations for the duration of...

Summary Monetary inflation is the driver of the economic boom-bust cycle, with booms being set in motion by rapid monetary inflation and busts getting underway after the rate of new money creation drops below a critical level and/or it becomes impossible to complete projects due to re...

Summary Despite all the worries over the possibility of a recession in the quarters ahead, the stock market seems to have priced in a “soft landing” for the economy. The cyclicals-to-defensives ratio has yet to really react even to the slowdown in the economy we have...

Summary Thus far, 70% of companies beat on top line while 59% beat earnings expectations. The combination of rising interest rates, strong US dollar, and high inflation have weighed on analyst sentiment going into Q3. Corporate margin expectations are still relatively high and...

Summary For the first time in years, the “real” forward rates depicted are all positive. When the real forward rate is a positive number, it implies that the monetary policy in the medium term is restrictive. Japan has now joined the club of restrictive monetary ...