QVMS News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 QVM Multi-factor ETF From 11/15/22

Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...

Summary The latest result is the fifth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. In the October update, the AIER Leading Indicators Index remained at 25. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell in October following two consecutive monthly gains. ...

Summary The November Preliminary Report came in at 54.7, down 5.2 from the October Final. To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 36 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 35.2 percent below the g...

Summary The October Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4%, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3%. The monthly increases - and the resulting trend rates - were less than financial markets expected. The annualized pace of growth for...

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary Consumer spending is a short leading indicator for employment. Together, spending and employment are two important coincident indicators of imminent recession. Several of the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending and employment have deteriorated sharply since ...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...

Summary We are in a landscape of divergences and potential pivots. The capacity to absorb structurally higher rates is likely to be key over the next year or two. We think the volatility generated by pivots can continue to offer a favorable backdrop to global macro and other t...

Summary The narrative in financial media is that inflation has peaked. The rate of change of inflation has peaked, not inflation. Inflation remains high and consumers are paying high prices. Yesterday's market rise was highly likely a relief rally. Fo...