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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook. The global economy was on track for strongly above-trend growth in 2022. The war in Ukraine will likely have a negative impact on growth and cause higher inflation this year, with Europe tak...

Russia-Ukraine conflict could push oil to $180 a barrel. Conflict also having major impact on agricultural commodities. High commodities prices may hamper global growth. For further details see: Oil's Price Surge May Not Be Done, As The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intensifie...

Food companies operating in Ukraine are facing the largest negative impact. Input costs for arable farmers are also increasing as sanctions against Belarus and Russia have a big impact on fertiliser supply chains. Higher energy prices are an indirect effect that is especially rele...

Ukraine is one of the main world exporters of grains as well as vegetable oils. The main agriculture export products are Corn and Wheat. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence GTAS Forecasting estimations, in 2021, 55.1% of Ukrainian wheat was exported to Asia and 40.7% to Af...

The ongoing uncertainty suggests that grains and oilseed markets will continue to price in a significant risk premium. The concerns over Ukraine will be largely related to domestic production as well as disruptions to export flows. The risk of additional sanctions against Russia a...

Almost every commodity rose in prices last week, as did the dollar. Those two factors - rising dollar and rising commodity prices - mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week. There was considerable volatility in stocks last week,...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ramifications for global inflation and growth, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. Western governments have not yet implemented direct sanctions on Russian oil and gas, but there have already been significant impacts on Russian oil tra...

The current environment looks to be a realignment of geopolitical expectations across Europe. The rapid and coordinated efforts of Western nations demonstrate this realignment. The monetary path of central banks is changing and an important dynamic to monitor. For further de...

Farmers are in an uncertain business, constantly at the mercy of difficult-to-predict forces such as commodity prices, geopolitics, and weather. Premiums for short-dated new-crop options are typically about 30% cheaper compared to standard November soybean and December corn options. ...

Supply disruption and price volatility are both expected. As both Russia and Ukraine have ports serving the grains and oilseeds trade along the Black Sea, logistics will be a key issue. Construction of a sunflower seed processing plant was recently completed in Ukraine. For ...