RJI News and Press, AB Svensk Ekportkredit ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Total Return Structured Product From 05/16/22

After a historic two years, we're pivoting from bullish to bearish on commodities. Weakening technicals, crowded positioning, and the overwhelming bullish consensus make for a treacherous tactical outlook. Stretched valuations, strong dollar, and a weakening macro backdrop also pr...

Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...

Wages are rising rapidly to try to keep up with the pace of inflation. We think that this is leading us to the early stages of a wage price spiral. During periods of high inflation, traditionally, real assets prosper while traditional assets suffer. So traditional assets typically suf...

Just when we thought the world economy was regaining its footing, a military conflict in Europe has led us to reconsider our outlook for growth and inflation. In light of Russia’s invasion, we developed a framework for thinking about the economic impact of the conflict on the e...

We slightly reduce risk on a worsening macro outlook. We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets. The Fed raised rates by 0.5% last week - the largest increase since 2000 - and signaled similar rises ahead. Long-term yields shot up a...

There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points. A rising currency is presumably negative for the export sector and positive for domestic purchasing power. On a sector basis, there were several winners last week wit...

The US Dollar Index notched a very strong April amid turmoil in Europe and Asia. Traditional asset class relationships have bucked trends in 2022. Any pullback in commodities is likely a buying opportunity as the year progresses. For further details see: U.S. Dollar Vs. ...

The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...

The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...

During the last Fed rate raising cycle, it took the Federal Reserve five years to raise the fed funds rate to 2.50%. The Fed kept rates far too low for far too long and now we are dealing with the consequences. Both fiscal and monetary policy have been highly inflationary, and we are ...