RJN News and Press, AB Svensk Ekportkredit ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Energy Total Return Structured Product From 10/13/22

Summary June Non-OPEC production increased by 178 kb/d to 48,990 kb/d. The largest increases came from Russia, 510 kb/d and the U.S., 201 kb/d. The current spread between Western Canada Select (WCS) and WTI has increased to $25/b from a more typical $12/b to $17/b. Mexico ...

Summary Are October rallies just bear traps in disguise? When will we see a turn in inflation? How to navigate bear markets. September was a brutal month for equities. Could markets strengthen this fall or are rallies just bear traps in disguise? Kim Parlee t...

Summary The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on 5 October announced plans to reduce oil production quotas by 2 million barrels a day (b/d) starting in November. While the oil market has rallied on the OPEC+ announcement, this retracement is rather m...

Summary For energy investors, the key takeaway from the OPEC+ meeting is that the group is willing to defend a floor in oil prices, presumably around $90 per barrel for the global benchmark Brent. In effect, a 2 million-barrel-per-day (MMBpd) cut based on August targets means that...

Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...

Summary OPEC+ surprised the market last week with a substantial production cut, reducing downside tail risk to prices and providing a constructive environment for energy credit. As we look at the supply landscape into the end of the year, the market will be focused on Russian prod...

Summary Our big energy bet will pay off handsomely in the upcoming months. OPEC+ announced that they plan a production cut of up to two million barrels per day. It wanted to “shock” energy markets to get crude oil prices back up to $100 per barrel. ISM announced ...

Summary The reduction of production quotas by OPEC+ members is putting a floor under oil prices. Fears of an impending recession in Europe are fully priced in. China consumption will likely rebound in 2023. Worldwide inventories continue to decline. US SPR releases will be...

Summary We maintain our intermediate-term bearish bias and think it makes sense to pursue short-term shorts, as well. Shorting stocks is a difficult and complicated proposition. Typical action would see oil back above $100 bbl pretty easily, with a run toward $120 certainly wi...

Summary Over the last two weeks Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. The big problem with the Fed’s plan to kill inflation by reducing economic growth and raising the unemployment rate is that t...