RPG News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth From 11/14/22

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...

Summary We are in a landscape of divergences and potential pivots. The capacity to absorb structurally higher rates is likely to be key over the next year or two. We think the volatility generated by pivots can continue to offer a favorable backdrop to global macro and other t...

Summary Impressive rally in both the US stock, bond, and international equity markets this week. The relationship between changes in the S&P 500 forward EPS estimates and the 10-year Treasury yield makes for an interesting discussion. The general opinion is that the S&...

Summary Liquidity may become a major headwind for stocks heading into year-end. While many expect a year-end rally, it may be more likely the market will see a new low. Reserve balance could be set to make a low before 2022 is over. The cooler-than-expected October C...

Summary The narrative in financial media is that inflation has peaked. The rate of change of inflation has peaked, not inflation. Inflation remains high and consumers are paying high prices. Yesterday's market rise was highly likely a relief rally. Fo...

Summary Why the declines in tech on the S&P 500 may be hiding strength in other sectors from investors. The energy sector may still provide opportunities for investors. Insurers are not suffering the same challenges as other financials in the current high-rate environment....

Summary Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. We are still struck by the latest Bank for International Settlements figures. Their survey found that the average daily turnover in the foreign exchange market was $7.5 trillion a day. While ...

Summary The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will all undershoot the current market discount for terminal rates, but we should get quite close to the tops that the market expects. The energy crisis in Europe adds to bond supply pressure as economi...

Summary Credit market rallies most in two years as inflation abates. The Semiconductors jumped 10.2% during Thursday's session, the Nasdaq Computer Index 9.0%, the Nasdaq100 8.4%, and the Bloomberg REIT Index 7.1%. The Goldman Sachs Short Index surged 10.9% Thursday, with a tw...

Summary The S&P 500, which fell to a year-to-date low of minus 25 percent in the middle of October, built the magnitude of its recovery back by nearly ten percent, and is now down just 16 percent from January. We do not see much in the way of surprises ahead from the big direc...