RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 12/13/22

Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...

Summary Overall, I think the markets had gotten to peak hawkishness and people were under-positioned because they were expecting a more and more hawkish Fed. This may be the tightest labor market, quite frankly, we’ve seen in five decades. This is the first proper recessionar...

Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...

Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...

Summary There are really two things that are driving the view that a durable bottom has not been felt. And the first is that there were unrealistic expectations of a dovish [US Federal Reserve] Fed pivot. It’s going to be very difficult for the Fed to pivot when they have n...

Summary The resilience of the labor market means the U.S. is probably not in a true recession. Macroeconomic headwinds do, however, make a mild recession within the next 12 months more likely than not. The market volatility has been one of the contributing factors to investor ...

Summary After a difficult 2022, cautious optimism may be in order. Here are our thoughts on market risks and opportunities heading into 2023. Through 2022, the market repriced for bad news — the Russian invasion of Ukraine, supply chain woes, stickier headline inflation and...

Summary If the unemployment level in the economy increases, this removes potential demand from the economy; hence, a slowdown or recession may unfold. The unemployment rate is flattening and possibly beginning an uptrend, with both the rate and average now equaling 3.7%. The p...

Summary The Federal Reserve has raised the Federal Funds Rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Chairman Powell says they have the "resolve" to stay the course until the job is done. Terminal rate targets have now moved higher while expectations for the duration of...

Summary Why lending has remained strong for U.S. banks even as a recession looms. Does the Fed have to go 'too far – too fast' to tackle inflation? The signals that are causing banks to become more cautious about loan losses. Aggressive rate hikes by t...