RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 01/12/23

Summary Recession forecasts are flying left and right lately, but the main pushback is the labor market. Notably, in the last three recessions, the year-over-year change in temp workers turned negative well ahead of the broad measure of private payrolls. Although new filings for une...

Summary HDGE is the type of ETF I should really like. But despite having followed it since its 2013 inception, I just can't endorse it. The premise of HDGE is solid: find companies that are overvalued due to tricky accounting, and short them. But somewhere along the way, this invers...

Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...

Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...

Summary Yield curve inversion has occurred ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s. Today, nearly every yield term spread has inverted. Several features of the current yield curve are sending a very strong recession signal. Several characteristics of the U.S. Treas...

Summary The overall stock market is grossly oversold, and my small- to mid-cap stocks are trading at 6.8 times median current earnings and just 2.8 times median forecasted 2023 earnings. Clearly, the price-to-earnings compression has become ridiculous and relentless. We are now at the t...

Summary When investing one must differentiate between those indicators based on sentiment and those based on hard counts of economic fundamentals. It is economic fundamentals which eventually emerge into the consensus thinking and produce returns that are better than average. When s...

Summary Avoiding growth last year paid enormous dividends, but I didn’t predict that growth stocks would fall in 2022, just that I couldn’t own them and fulfill our fiduciary duty. Near-term stock market performance is negatively correlated with economic growth. Commod...

Summary Several estimates of fourth quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The odds that a recession has started, however, remain low, according to the current nowcast. Even if Q4 turns out to be stronger than some nowcasts suggest, headwinds are still blo...

Summary 2022 provided long only investors with poor returns, both in equity and fixed income markets. With M-2 money supply growth slowing and a profits recession on the horizon, 2023 is likely to look a lot like 2022, particularly in the first half of the year. My portfolio allocat...