RWM News and Press, ProShares Short Russell2000 From 04/25/22

Historically, a recession followed when 50% or more of the tracked yield curves became inverted. Every time. Interestingly, many of the data points suggesting the “economy is booming” are lagging indicators subject to significant negative revisions in the future. Eve...

We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle. In the near term, we expect the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) to continue to recover from its March trough. We expect the dis...

As the largest bank in the U.S., we can use the company's earnings call to look for clues as to how the economy is doing and whether or not a recession is coming. The results appear to be mostly encouraging. In addition, we go over why investors shouldn't jump into JPM just yet. ...

Considering the headline index is only a couple of points above the pandemic low, last month’s reading is only in the 16th percentile of all months on record going back to the start of the report in 1986. Plans to increase employment have pulled back significantly from pandemic...

Mortgage News Daily reported that the average 30-year mortgage topped 5% late last week (almost double the rates on offer back in late-2020). Debt servicing costs have skyrocketed over the last year, which will pressure economic growth in the coming quarters, according to historical t...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

One of the main stories in the money and bond markets of late has been the development of inverted yield curves in the Treasury (UST) market. The Fed just finished purchasing almost $5 trillion in securities. Equally as important, the U.S. economy is in rather solid shape, a fact ...

Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...