RYE News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy From 02/24/22

As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse. Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. Gold is gaining for a fourth straight week, with spot prices now up 1.2%...

Global markets tumble on Russian attack on Ukraine. Russian inflation stokes stagflation fears. Commodities the big winner in Russian attack. For further details see: Markets Sell Off As Russia Attacks Ukraine: What's At Stake For Investors?

The problem for Western leaders is that their governing elites have incoherent views towards Russia, and it is unclear how much this will change. The implication is that if fighting were to continue, it would be in the form of an insurgency. Government spending that is not tied to...

It seems likely that Russia’s overwhelming military force will eventually prevail and Ukraine’s government and independence will succumb. Inflation is already elevated and rising energy prices will likely exacerbate pricing pressure further. Russia’s growing e...

Russia's recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DLPR) has sparked global outrage and triggered the first tranche of sanctions. Although Russian markets are closed for a public holiday, offshore trading shows a continued sell-off in Russian USD debt. We take a l...

US inflation remains elevated and appears on track to remain so for the immediate future. The Producer Price Index for All Commodities has peaked on a year-over-year basis. The sharp increase in shipping costs over the past year captures the supply-chain disruptions that have been...

The U.S. has been importing more crude oil from Russia, especially on the West Coast, due to the decline of Alaska’s crude oil output. So, if the U.S. tried to curtail Russian energy imports, then the record prices at the pump on the West Coast could soar higher. China is expor...

Forecasting macro activity and managing expectations have become substantially more difficult. As the West imposes sanctions on Russia, the potential for a severe supply shock lurks – particularly for oil and natural gas. Macroeconomic risk will rise, perhaps leading to a n...

Russia supplies natural gas to Europe, and in the event of US sanctions, this could impact Europe. But there are so many LNG ships in the Atlantic right now that lease rates have collapsed, so Russian threats to cut off Europe’s gas may not be much of a threat. The other big th...

Non-U.S. markets, including EM, DM, and Asia, are outperforming the U.S. markets after underperforming last year. After slightly underperforming growth last year, value is where the money is flowing. With the economy still in growth mode, cyclical stocks should do better than defe...