RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 09/20/22

Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...

Summary The financial markets were shocked by the US CPI for August. The evidence continues to accumulate that inflation is now in a downward trend. The monthly chart shows that the numbers remain very high relative to everything over the past twenty years prior to the past fe...

Summary Nobody knows how high interest rates have to rise in order to slow and ultimately reverse the recent rise in inflation. Only excess money causes inflation, and there seems to be a lot less of it recently, which is great news. Supply chain bottlenecks are clearing up ra...

Summary Data can easily mislead, but they can also inform. Although the U.S. began consistently to run annual trade deficits in 1976, the negative impact on employment growth that protectionists predict did not materialize. No data or sets of graphs, regardless of how carefull...

Summary As we start the third week of September, with the US Fed’s much-telegraphed rate hike on Wednesday (+.75 with some 30% betting odds of a full percent!), markets are peaked. To date, Canada’s TSX -13% is just a quarter through the price correction experienced ...

Summary Many pundits believe that the Federal Reserve erred in not withdrawing monetary stimulus fast enough - I'm not one of them. Data proves that energy prices have been the main component of inflation and that's the fault of Saudi Arabia and Russia, not the Fed. Tightening...

Summary After the August inflation report card flunked, the Fed meets this week to further address inflation. Markets expect either a 75 bps or a 100 bps hike. The "Everything Bubble" is rapidly deflating as the Fed pivots to allow markets to clear rather than artificially support...

Summary The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation and an ...

Summary Mitigating the impact of inflation might mean cutting interest rate sensitivity by favoring shorter-dated fixed income but also trimming speculative growth exposure in equity portfolios. The market appears to seize on any sign of easing inflation to be bullish, while remai...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...