RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 10/04/22

Summary The Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation in the third quarter. The end of the quarter saw Hurricane Ian deal a lethal blow to southwest Florida. The economic impact is severe and portends a big downshift in the economy o...

Summary Last week, the 2-year Treasury rate rose above 4.3%, the 10-year Treasury rose above 3.9%, and mortgage rates topped 7%, their highest level in 20 years. By reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month, the Fed has sent the 10-year rate substantially higher. The...

Summary Elevated inflation, currencies, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain key economic considerations. Volatility measured by the VIX spiked in September after declining in August. This wall of worry is real, but it is impor...

Summary Everywhere today, conversations are being had about what is happening in asset markets and the economy. Many people are in varying degrees of concern, alarm, and distress. Few are yet in a panic. History assures us that they will be. The average portfolio allocation re...

Summary Asian markets continue to struggle this year, thanks in large part to the weak China market. The only asset class showing positive performance is volatility. It has been a bumpy ride down this year, with six failed rally attempts. We are now 25.3% below the high water mark...

Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...

Summary YTD, the S&P 500 is now down 24% while bonds have their own double-digit losses. Like stock valuations, currency valuations aren’t great timing tools but over a 3-year period after becoming undervalued, the outperformance is strong. Consumer defensive stocks...

Summary The Great Financial Crisis taught us about the extraordinary capacity of central bank balance sheets and fiscal authorities to absorb financial shocks and mitigate the effect of massive deleveraging. The politicians and monetary policymakers have become too used to their s...

Summary We are now approaching the market region which can support a major rally. The nature of the next rally will tell me if we are still on track for higher market highs or not. One way or another, I am expecting a major bear market to begin and last at least 7-8 years, and...

Summary The average of S&P 500 for September 2022 was 3,853 (18% down from December 2021 average of 4,675) and is still 1,243 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,610. For the S&P 500 to reach the long-trend would entail a 32% decline from the Se...