RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 06/24/22

NGDP is up 12.4% over the past 9 quarters, an annual rate of 5.3%. That’s too high. I usually focus on NGDP out of sheer laziness, and also because it is normally quite similar to NGDI. The past few years have been quite unusual, however, with a surprisingly large divergenc...

Jobless claims have been trending higher off of multi-decade lows, indicating a moderating labor market. Continuing claims lag by one week relative to initial claims and moved higher for the third consecutive week, representing the longest streak of weekly increases since March 2020. ...

The March 2020 market freefall was highly unusual in its brevity. As unusual inflows spiked prices, many erroneously believed that the escalation into 2022 was ‘normal’. Indiscriminate buying can look smart in bull markets, where pullbacks are fleeting. For fur...

Russia's war with Ukraine and recent lockdowns in mainland China have further disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points at its mid-June meeting and signaled its determination to return inflation to 2%, acknowled...

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell 2,000 for the week ending June 18, coming in at 229,000. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sustained elevated price increases, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle represent risks to the economic outlook. Labor shortag...

The percentage of respondents reporting neutral sentiment moved modestly higher, increasing by just 30 basis points to 22.5%. The percentage of respondents reporting bearish sentiment rose for the third consecutive week to 59.3%, the highest level since late April. The bull-bear s...

A number of key technical, sentiment and flow based indicators are suggesting we could see a relief in selling pressure over the coming weeks, and perhaps a countertrend rally in risk assets. Reducing market hedges and short positions at current levels looks to be a prudent strategy. ...

Last week, the markets had their worst week since the pandemic crash in early 2020. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are in a bear market now, and there is extreme fear in the market. The speed at which stocks have fallen is unprecedented. What does the last big and prolong...

The only way to raise living standards over the long term is to raise productivity, and central banks don’t do that. Central banks move demand around by providing and withdrawing spending power by influencing the creation and amounts of debt assets and debt liabilities. The...

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index's preliminary estimate for June plunged to a record low. The good news from all this bad news is that “contrarian theory” says that when sentiment reaches such historic lows, the only way it can go is up. T...