RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 06/28/22

For the stock market to bottom, we need a clear vision of how the Fed is going to back off on its assault on high-beta assets. There are more excess reserves in the system now, so the much more aggressive rate of QT may not bite right away, but QT has never reached this scale, so high...

Until proven otherwise, the current bounce, as delightful as it may be, still has the hallmark of a bear market rally. The NYAD Advance-Decline line (NYAD) recently made a new low and remains in a downtrend. The S&P 500 (SPX) remains in a bearish lower high, lower high do...

Since they started raising rates late last year the Fed has $540B of unrealized losses. How problematic is this? Just like the Fed’s unrealized losses, the losses you’ve incurred in high quality bonds are just temporary. There’s been a lot of political banter ...

New orders for durable goods increased 0.7 percent in May, following a 0.4 percent gain in April, the 11th increase in the last 13 months. Nearly every major category (six of seven) in the durable goods report showed a gain in May. Durable goods orders continue to be strong, parti...

We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...

Growth concerns, inflation and volatility fueled the debate at our Outlook Forum over why we’re entering a new macro and market regime and what that means. Poor activity data reinforced slowdown fears, resulting in falling yields and rising stocks last week. Persistent UK infla...

Markets traded last week as if inflation fear has peaked. The move in cash bond yields really don’t do the shift justice, with the trend still firmly up. Rates futures, however, tell a more interesting story. The Dec-23-Dec-22 curve in the US is now inverted by a whopping 40bp,...

Earnings for the S&P 500, according to Howard Silverblatt’s work at S&P, are expected to rise 7.7% in 2022. Growth stocks were grossly overvalued going into that bear market and they took the brunt of the damage. Real estate did well last week with rates falling bac...

The SEC proposes to seek solutions to the many problems of our National Market System (NMS) for securities trading, problems such as payments for order flow (PFOF). The NMS problems identified by the SEC do not exist in financial futures markets. Here are adjustments to ...

Market soured because inflation seems to be easing. That's not likely, Powell's bully pulpit pressured commodities. Also, commodities are well-known to be extremely volatile, maybe they moved to the downside spontaneously? For these reasons and others, I expect stock prices to...