RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 07/01/22

Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Another big theme of mine in recent years was that the Fed was behind the curve both ways. So, defining inflation as an incr...

Regular investments into the market mechanically buys more (less) when prices fall (rise), relieving you of the task of estimating timely moments for investing. History suggests that when the S&P 500 falls 20% from its previous peak, there’s usually more pain to come before...

Spending on services rose in May, but spending on goods fell – all adjusted for inflation. Spending on durable goods continues to be handicapped by the ongoing shortage of new vehicles. “Real” spending on services rose by 0.3% in May from April, and by 4.7% ye...

I looked at 72 years of market data back to 1950. 21 had negative 1st half returns. 51 had positive 1st half returns. What happened in the 2nd half of each group offers some clues about what we can expect in the coming 6 months. The market had a rough 1 st ...

Mass Political Disapproval across the developed world. Yesterday, an analyst named Jim Bianco was quoted in MarketWatch comparing current conditions to 1966. 5yr breakevens have dropped a Full 1% in the last three months – from 3.59% to 2.59%. Einstein once said, ...

Personal income rose 0.5 percent in May, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Excluding personal transfer payments, personal income rose 0.7 percent in May and is up 8.3 percent over the latest 12-month period. The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine an...

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell 2,000 for the week ending June 25, coming in at 231,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.286 million for the week ending June 11, a rise of 17,836 from the prior week. Labor shortag...

Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims came in at 231K which was ever so slightly above expectations of 230K. The four-week rolling standard deviation in claims has fallen below 1 for only the seventh time on record going back to 1967. In the most recent week’s data thr...

The recent unusually large swing in household wealth is not getting the attention it deserves as another recession risk. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, largely as a result of surging equity and home prices, household wealth increased from $116 trillion at the end of 2019 ...

Judging by every other opinion, the US looks like it’s headed into a recession. Jobless claims have risen to 230,000 from March ’22’s low of 166,000 with the difference of 66,000 being a 38% jump in jobless claims since mid-March. If the S&P 500 can hold t...