RZG News and Press, Invesco S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth From 07/11/22

With the Fed voicing its intention of reversing its easing policy and beginning to tighten, it is logical that sooner or later signs of less liquidity would begin to surface. The area of commodity futures is more often based on speculation than anything concrete. It is also highly lev...

June saw us hit what I call the “growth concern phase” of this tightening cycle. As equities declined, credit spreads widened and global yields rose in the first half of the year, it was only a matter of time until conditions tightened enough to slow growth to the point ...

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...

While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong job market will make it harder for the Fed to bring down inflation. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped back to 62.2%. YoY, this June is lower than last June by 185k jobs. Despite a job report that beat expectati...

The LIBOR replacement, SOFR, is failing to measure credit risk at a time when managing this risk is most important. The coming market failure will thus be partly a result of financial regulators’ myopic approach to protecting market stability. Regulators protect components ...

First of all, payroll figures out on Friday looked quite good. That is, wage inflation continues to moderate and unemployment is low at 3.6%. We analyze yield curves, technical data, prior bear markets and corporate earnings among other metrics looking for signs of a bottom. The d...

Last month, when the Federal Reserve hiked 75 bp instead of the 50 it had signaled, Chair Powell cited the unexpectedly strong CPI and elevated University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations. While inflation did accelerate, the core rate fell. Moreover, the Fed targets the PCE...

The late-nineties U.S. “tech” Bubble was financed, at the margin, by high-yield debt (telecom, in particular), speculative hedge fund levered finance, and GSE liquidity. The current backdrop is unique. The bottom line is that the situation in China continues to deter...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank runs a predictive model called GDPNow, which forecasts a decline of 1.9 percent for Q2 GDP as of today. After the longest growth cycle on record, from 2009-20, we had the shortest recession on record. While we agree with some of the insights for a ...

It will be a busy week for Fed speak as Williams talks about LIBOR on Monday, Barkin discusses recession on Tuesday, Waller speaks on Thursday and Bostic talks on Friday. Energy traders will have a lot to keep their eye on next week as President Biden makes a trip to the Middle East a...