SCHA News and Press, Schwab U.S. Small-Cap From 01/08/23

Summary The December CPI report is critical to the current market narrative. After back-to-back cooler-than-expected CPI readings, markets have gotten very optimistic about disinflation in 2023. All it will take is one misstep along the way to kill the market's hope of inflation mel...

Summary Global business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month in December, with the rate of decline moderating slightly amid improved supply conditions but still rounding off the worst quarter since 2009 barring lockdown months. At 48.2 in December, the Global PMI - compiled by S&...

Summary 2022 was a bad year for most kinds of core investment assets, from the least-risky Treasury securities to the most volatile corners of the equity market. We expect there will be a recession in the US at some point in 2023, driven by a combination of cyclical factors. Bond yi...

Summary Several estimates of fourth quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The odds that a recession has started, however, remain low, according to the current nowcast. Even if Q4 turns out to be stronger than some nowcasts suggest, headwinds are still blo...

Summary Trying to increase the Fed funds rate to 7%, 2.5% higher than they are currently, risks triggering a catastrophically deep recession. As economic growth expanded, increasing wages and savings, the entire period was marked by inflation surges. The problem comes if inflation r...

Summary The Services sector joins Manufacturing indicating the US economy is in poor condition. The global scene is no different and is confirming the forecasts for a global recession. I don't issue year-end forecasts. Events will happen that defy any forecast because that is what h...

Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The long and short leading indicators are decisively negative, while consumer spending and employment coi...

Summary This morning's employment report for December showed a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 200K jobs added. The unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over has fallen significantly since its 4.4% a...

Summary Employment rises in both Household by 723,000, and Establishment by 223,000, reports. Yesterday Job Openings showed a rise as did Quits. Employment trends remain in positive trends despite the spate of layoffs in the COVID-favored issues which has been the focus of many. Ind...

Summary The US added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate returned to cycle lows, but there are signs that a turn is coming. A fifth consecutive drop in temporary help employment is a warning signal while softer wage inflation suggests labour market dynamics are shifting. With bus...