SCHP News and Press, Schwab U.S. TIPs From 12/24/22

Summary Fiscal 2022 was the 21st consecutive year of a Federal budget deficit. Total U.S. Treasury debt at fiscal 2022 year-end was $30.9B. U.S. Treasury debt rose $8.5B in the three fiscal years ending in 2022. The Federal Reserve increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt by...

Summary Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting provided reinforcement for those anticipating slower rate hikes and a more stable bond market next year. Chair Jerome Powell seems to lean toward downshifting to 25-basis-point increases. Investors could see slower rate hikes from h...

Summary Demand destruction is weighing on prices globally as financial conditions tighten. The good news is that headline CPI is set to follow crude lower in 2023. This Wednesday, any dovish nods out of the FOMC could spark a year-end relief rally in risk markets. Demand d...

Summary The SPIP has a real yield of 1.6%, which is what investors should expect to achieve after inflation over the maturity of the bond fund, which is currently 7.8 years. Returns are likely to be significantly higher than this over the coming 12-24 months as real bond yields make the...

Summary The stock market has already endured a major correction over the past 12 months and could be headed back to pre-pandemic levels. The real estate market has been suddenly frozen by the rapid pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes. Home prices are now starting to drop and...

Summary The SCHP ETF holds a portfolio of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. The SCHP ETF has an effective duration of 6.8 years. While the headline inflation figures on November 10 came in below expectations, the SCHP ETF actually rallied as yields fell across the board...

Summary With policy rates now meaningfully above neutral, the first phase of the tightening process is finished—and apparently successful. With the Fed’s credibility intact, it can move to a new phase: rolling out more rate hikes but at a slower pace. We expect t...

Summary The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. History suggests that buying and holding this 50-50 mix is attractive when the sum ...

Summary Since the peak in early June, $196 billion in Treasury securities have rolled off the Fed’s balance sheet, reducing the balance of Treasury securities to $5.57 trillion, the lowest since November 17. Since the peak, the balance of MBS had dropped by $62 billion. ...

Summary The global economy has been hit by several headwinds, almost all of them leading back to higher inflation. Europe is likely already in recession, the U.S. will enter recession in Q2 2023, while China struggles to make recovery headway. Markets have faced up to the reality ...