SCHQ News and Press, Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF From 09/14/23

2023-09-14 10:45:00 ET Summary US consumer inflation rises, but markets still expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The Treasury market predicts no change in policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Traders reflect near-certainty of no change in policy based...

2023-09-14 05:20:00 ET Summary A hike from the ECB today may have limited impact, as a total of 25bp of tightening is already fully priced before year-end. Raising rates today would probably be largely interpreted as pulling forward that final hike, but the appetite to price in mo...

2023-09-13 13:00:00 ET Summary Some analysts who favor one or two indicators to forecast US recessions have had a rough year. For now, the probability that a recession has started, or is about to start, remains low, based on another indicator featured in The US Business Cycle Risk...

2023-09-13 12:19:00 ET Summary At June 30th, 2023, the S&P 500 was priced to return 1.65%/year over the next ten years. Given the rally since then, that return has risen to 2.03%/year. Currently the 10-year Treasury yields 4.29% [bond-equivalent yield, add 0.09% to annualize]....

2023-09-13 02:45:00 ET Summary The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead. Treasury yields have spent the past year in a state of flux - rising and falling on mixed econom...

2023-09-12 10:25:00 ET Summary Markets have been quick to react to individual data points without taking a step back to look at the bigger picture for the US, which is one of economic slowing and disinflation. The Bank of Canada erred on the side of caution and enacted another pau...

2023-09-11 17:38:00 ET Summary If an investor is to make tactical changes to their portfolio, it is in the extremes where they will find their greatest opportunities. What looks like an extreme today might be merely a way station on the path to something even more extreme. Con...

2023-09-11 13:40:00 ET Summary This time of year always makes me reflect on the intense seasonality of our business. As the calendar turns to September, investors return from vacation, news flow ramps up, progress versus objectives is assessed even as planning for the coming year ...

2023-09-11 10:05:00 ET Summary August CPI, due 9/13/23, becomes another focal point / the inflection point du jour. A look back on US rate structure gives perspective (higher for longer?). Still very constructive on the market with caveats on sector and valuation. Fo...

2023-09-10 05:05:00 ET Summary What to expect from the "Magnificent 7" going forward? What is driving stocks higher? Why stocks keep rising even as cracks form in the economy. Equity markets have had a strong year so far, with the S&P 500 up 17% and the Nasdaq Co...