SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 10/18/22

Summary U.S. economy shrank in two consecutive quarters earlier in 2022. Recession Probability Track visually illustrates how that probability changes over time. CEOs or professional forecasters are giving much higher odds of a recession taking hold in the next 12 months than ...

Summary The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is a group of 12 variables that have historically foreshadowed an upcoming recession. The Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured durin...

Summary Are October rallies just bear traps in disguise? When will we see a turn in inflation? How to navigate bear markets. September was a brutal month for equities. Could markets strengthen this fall or are rallies just bear traps in disguise? Kim Parlee t...

Summary What lessons can we learn from this postwar history of recessions? Recessions in the modern era are not just the product of natural economic cycles, but also of the latent systemic pressures that exist in a highly interlinked and mutually dependent global capital market. ...

Summary Markets seesaw on conflicting economic signals. Is a recession possible in the U.S. in the next 12 months? Q3 earnings season outlook. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Sophie Ant...

Summary The Bureau of Economic Analysis weighed in on the discussion yet again last week with the release of the Third Estimate for Q2 2022 real GDP. According to the BEA, GDI is defined as a measure of the incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of gross domestic ...

Summary The slowdown in US economic growth has yet to reach a tipping point that marks the start of recession. The availability of published data to date provides only a partial profile for August and September. The economic updates over the coming weeks will be critical for d...

Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...

Summary As the Federal Reserve continues reiterating a more aggressive monetary policy stance, analysts are finally shifting from a “slow growth” to a “mild recession” view. Investing during a recession is difficult. The recession could be worse tha...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...