SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 04/01/23

2023-04-01 02:55:00 ET Summary The Economic Trend Index and Economic Momentum Index have recently dropped below their tipping points (50% and 0%, respectively). But this signal looks premature or wrong, based on various indicators that, in isolation, show the economy is still expa...

2023-04-01 02:15:00 ET Summary As the Fed tightens monetary policy, a banking crisis is historically the first evidence that something was breaking. Historically, once the Fed opens dollar swap lines, further monetary accommodations follow from rate cuts to “quantitative ea...

2023-03-30 09:14:00 ET Summary Ongoing strength in the labor market and consumer sector are on the short list of reasons why a number of forecasters have been surprised. ETI and EMI are comprised of 14 indicators that capture a broad measure of US economic activity and are include...

2023-03-29 03:30:00 ET Summary While US large cap equity indexes have generally fared well over the past five years, the Russell 1000 Invesco Dynamic Multifactor Index [RB1] has posted standout returns. The Russell 1000 Index — an unbiased barometer for the broad US large c...

2023-03-28 09:56:00 ET Summary The overall systemic risk to financial markets from stresses in the banking sector appears contained, making a repeat of the 2008 crisis unlikely. Many global central banks reaffirmed their commitment to taming inflation by announcing additional rate...

2023-03-27 11:20:00 ET Summary Central banks confront the growth-inflation trade-off, with the Federal Reserve seeing recession but no rate cuts. We agree - and prefer inflation-linked bonds. Bank stocks remained under pressure last week. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield slid furt...

2023-03-25 01:37:00 ET Summary Many “recession indicators” are ringing alarm bells, from inverted yield curves to various manufacturing and production indexes. While the market is starting to price in just one additional rate hike by the Fed, the “lag effect&#...

2023-03-23 06:28:00 ET Summary In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting. We almost always know what the Fed is going to do on announcement day because the dat...

2023-03-23 06:00:58 ET Summary Powell's remarks were generally hawkish. In particular, he pushed back against expectations of a pivot later in 2023. Yellen's remarks threw cold water on hopes for a quick and decisive extension of insurance guarantees for all US deposits. The c...

2023-03-21 15:02:00 ET Summary Six weeks ago, a recession forecasting model developed by a U.S. Federal Reserve analyst predicted the probability of recession in the U.S. would soon rise above 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25% ...